Under Strict Embargo

I perhaps shouldn’t have been surprised as I was at the volume of press coverage triggered by figures from Nielsen yesterday, claiming the first ever monthly fall in Facebook users in the UK. According to the research firm only 8.5 million unique users in Britain spent time on Facebook in January 2008, compared to 8.9 million in December - a 5% fall.

Speaking to Forbes yesterday I was keen to stress that we shouldn’t jump to conclusions based on a single set of figures, but at the same time we shouldn’t expect the growth of social networks to continue at such a phenomenal rate. Despite this hiccup Facebook fans have been keen to point out that the audience is a remarkable 712% higher than in January 2007 and 9% larger than at the end of October 2007. This contrasts with an apparent 9% fall for MySpace over the course of last year.

What these figures have done is moved the focus onto the next stage of social networking development. A number of commentators have suggested that the future of social networking sites lies in them becoming more niche. The million dollar question is which niche?

The sub-25s may be more relaxed about privacy and advertising but arguably more promiscuous over which ‘cool’ site to spend their time on. Older professionals may be more stable and attractive to brands but generationally far more sensitive to how advertisers take advantage of their personal data.

In any case there’s no need to perform the last rites over social networking quite yet.

UPDATE: Henry over at Tamar has some interesting analysis predicting that next month should see the Facebook numbers recover…

Hillary Clinton’s lack of appeal with young voters is quickly emerging as her Achilles heel and a look at each of the candidate’s popularity on Facebook provides further evidence. Barack Obama has attracted almost 200,000 supporters compared to just 60,000 for Clinton. Last night saw the first of the ABC/Facebook debates and the accompanying US Politics Group - from where the chart below is taken - is well worth a look. The most striking feature for me is the contrast in Facebook support between the Democrats and Republicans overall. There are no shortage of young Republicans on Facebook but it appears the GOP candidates either don’t know how to attract them or bizarrely, simply don’t care.

2007 has been an amazing year personally. Leaving the warm bosom of agency life was a difficult decision but I’ve since been lucky enough to work with some amazing clients, agencies and practitioners on some really ground breaking digital PR campaigns. It’s been a journey into the future of PR and the future looks very bright indeed. So what do I think 2008 will bring?

1. The Year of the Widget
I have been spending a lot of time over the past couple of months working with some great developers on the design of widgets. I’m not talking about Zombies here, but creative, engaging, viral and above all value-added applications which support wider PR campaigns. The integration of widgets into the armoury of digital PR tactics will really take off in 2008 as developments like OpenSocial improve the economics and allow single applications to access larger audiences across multiple social networking sites. Beyond their role in PR, the widget will continue to change the shape of online advertising, as they move onto the desktop and mobiles – this recent article in Adweek is well worth a read to get up to speed.

2. Do you Vlog?
Video blogging will be one of the biggest tech trends of 2008. This will be driven by high profile bloggers such as Iain Dale experimenting with the medium as well as new platforms like Seesmic and Magnify. Another driver will be next generation mobile handsets with better quality in-built video cameras combined with falling data costs enabling vlogging on the move. It could even capture the media zeitgeist from Facebook, speaking of which…

3. Facebook media backlash
A bit like Jade Goody, having devoted acres of coverage building it up, 2008 will see the media try to bring Facebook down. The Beacon disaster has seen the US press sharpening its knives and the shift in sentiment will no doubt cross the Atlantic. Despite the less favourable coverage, Facebook will continue to grow and members will spend more and more time on the site. Reports of Facebook’s imminent demise by a few over excited commentators are I feel greatly exaggerated. The positives that make the site so great still far out weigh the disadvantages. The Beacon saga has shown Mark Zuckerberg that he stops listening to users concerns at his peril – I don’t think he will be stupid enough to make the same mistakes twice. Removing the negatives in terms of poor data protection and privacy, overly intrusive commercialisation and the small but growing volume of application related spam will need to be his top priorities for 2008.

4. Jumping on the social media bandwagon
Johnny come lately PR agencies will continue to jump on the social media bandwagon. Expect PR Week to be full of more stories of traditional PR agencies appointing heads of social media and creating specialist divisions.

5. A high-profile PR account shifts to a digital agency
The fundamental shifts in the PR industry will come into sharp focus when a high-profile client shifts its PR account to a Spannerworks-esque agency with digital and search at its core. There will be much debate and navel gazing. A few weeks later agencies respond by – yes you’ve guessed it – doing more of number 4.